Hawkeye - Illawarra Hawks v Perth Wildcats - Semi-Final Game Three

THE MUST KNOWS 

When: 9:30pm AEST, Monday 14 June

Where: RAC Arena, Perth

Broadcast: ESPN, SBS Viceland and Twitch

Past meetings:

Round 8 at John Cain Arena: Wildcats 87 def Hawks 70
Round 11 at RAC Arena: Wildcats 81 def Hawks 70
Round 14 at RAC Arena: Wildcats 83 def Hawks 69 
Round 21 at WIN Ent Centre: Hawks 81 def Wildcats 79 
Semi-Final game 1 at RAC Arena: Hawks 74 def Wildcats 72 
Semi-Final game 2 at WIN Ent Centre: Wildcats 79 def Hawks 71 

THE PRELUDE

Well, this is it. Game Three of the semi-final series between the Illawarra Hawks and Perth Wildcats at RAC Arena, with the winner advancing to the NBL Grand Final and the loser going home.

A win to the Hawks will get them into the Grand Final for the first time since 2017.
The Hawks were runners up that year to the Wildcats, while also being runners up in 2010 (v Wildcats), runners up in 2005 (v Sydney Kings) and Champions in 2001 (v Townsville Crocodiles).

A win to the Wildcats will be their ninth Grand Final in the past 12 seasons - including six out of the past eight under the coaching of Trevor Gleeson.

If thy were to advance, Perth has never lost a Grand Final series under Trevor Gleeson in five Championship deciders.

One stat in the Hawks favour is that 24 of the last 25 playoff series played in the NBL have been won by the team that won game one (Illawarra defeated the Wildcats in Game One in Perth).

The Hawks will have a full rotation to choose from while Mitch Norton and Luke Travers both picked up niggling injuries in Game Two and will most likely have to pass fitness tests to play.

THE FUN FACTS

The last five post-season games the Wildcats have played in have all been won by the road team.

The Wildcats have not lost a series ending game at home since they lost to the Hawks in 2001 -  they have won their eight since then.

The Hawks won Game One in Perth which ended a streak of one win in their past 35 games in West Australia. Illawarra’s record out West now stands at eight wins and 59 losses.

The Hawks won twice in Perth in 2005 and in 2001 – and in both those seasons they played in the Grand Final.

Only two teams have ever beaten the Wildcats twice at RAC Arena in the same season – Melbourne United this season and the NZ Breakers in 2015.

Illawarra have won just three Game Three playoff games on the road in the club's history history – twice in their championship season of 2001 and once in Adelaide the last time they made the Grand Final.

Trevor Gleeson has never lost game one of a playoff series and recovered to win the series in his NBL coaching career.

Trevor Gleeson and Brian Goorjian have coached against each other now 19 times for Gleeson 10 wins and Goorjian 9 wins.

SEMI-FINAL STATS:

Both sides are exactly 19-from-60 three-point shots in the first two games (31.7%)

From the field the Hawks have gone 57-from-143 FG's at 39.9% while the Wildcats have made 52-from-126 FG's at 41.3%.

The Hawks have made 12-from-25 free-throws (48%) in the series, while the Wildcats have more trips and more makes at the charity stripe - the defending champions going 28-from-38 (73.7%) from the free-throw line.

The Hawks ranked last this season in free-throw shooting at 70.2% and this series so far it's only gotten worse. In the two semi-final games so far the side has shot 48%. In game two Illawarra had no FT attempts in the first three quarters, while in the same space of time Perth had 15.

Former Hawk Todd Blanchfield is the leading scorer for the Wildcats at 17.5ppg and has shot 8-from-19 threes.

Justin Simon was subbed out with 1:39 left in the third quarter of game two and did not return. He had 2 fouls, 8 points and 5 assists in 25-minutes in the game. In game one Simon was the Bunnings player of the game and played the full 10 minutes of the fourth quarter.

THE MATCH UP

AJ Ogilvy and Sam Froling v John Mooney and Luke Travers

Arguably the most important stat coming into this win-or-go-home Game Three is that the team that has dominated the offensive rebounds has won both games of the series. In Game One, Illawarra was 12-5 on the offensive glass, while Perth turned the tables in Game Two to win the count 16-9. 

Ogilvy and Froling had an uncharacteristicly off night together in Game Two of the series, and it allowed their Perth counterparts to dominate inside and set the tone for a resounding series-tying win.

Ogilvy found himself in rare foul trouble in Game Two, the Hawks skipper managing only 11 minutes before fouling out with the solitary rebound to his name. Froling was forced to carry a big load in Ogilvy's absence, the sophomore big playing a massive 33minutes and only managing two points and five boards.

Travers has been a shining light for the Wildcats this series with averages of 12.5 points and 8 rebounds per game. In Game Two he became the first U/20 player since Frank Drmic in 1997 to have a double/double in a playoff game. 

His partner in crime, John Mooney, continues to flex his sizeable muscle in and around the hoop as well, with the American centre having 18 points and 10 boards in the Game Two win. Mooney is also averaging 15.5 points and 13 rebounds in this series.

Whoever wins this battle tonight, will help their side win the series.

THE SPOTLIGHT

Tyler Harvey

Harvey and back court running mate Justinian Jessup have combined for 17 points in the first half and 45 in the second half of the two games so far this series in a sign that the suffocating defence of the Wildcats has been tough to break down early on in each contest.

Harvey is averaging 17ppg which is slightly down on his season average of 20.4ppg. He's also shot 8-from-23 (35%) from beyond the arc across the first two games, but has failed to get to the foul line despite playing 70 minutes of action.

Harvey finished Game Two with 24 points on 9-from-23 shooting, and in worrying signs for Perth he started to look like the man who could well and truly be announced as the league MVP in a few days. 

One thing in Harvey's favour for Game Three is the fact Wildcats guard Mitch Norton may not take his place in the side after failing to finish Game Two with a hip issue. Norton has worn Harvey like a glove each time the two side's have met this season, so if he doesn't play, expect Harvey to find a bit more room to move.