Hawkeye - Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United R14 Preview

THE MUST KNOWS 

When: 3pm AEST, Sunday 18 April

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: SBS Viceland, SBS On Demand and Twitch

Past meetings:

Round 5: Melbourne 91 def Illawarra 88 at Wollongong
Round 9: Illawarra 77 def Melbourne 69 at John Cain Arena
Round 10: Melbourne 75 def Illawarra 65 at John Cain Arena

THE PRELUDE

As is the case with every game at this stage of the season - today's matchup will have big ramifications for the NBL ladder and the playoff picture. If the Hawks can even the season series against United at 2-2 and pull out a win away from home, they will force their way back into the top four at Sydney's expense.

It's a task easier said than done, with the Hawks last win over United at John Cain Arena in Round 9 also the last time Illawarra won a game away from Wollongong.

On the other hand, Melbourne could reclaim their spot on top of the ladder if they can muster a win. If United do get up, it will be their eight win on the bounce - their best winning sequence since they started the year 6-0.

Hawks big man Cam Bairstow will miss his fourth straight game with a leg issue. 

Scotty Hopson is back from injury and that is bad news for Illawarra. Hopson has not lost to the Hawks in his four games against them so far and has averaged 17.7ppg.

THE FUN FACTS

The 69-points that Melbourne struggled to reach against the Hawks in their last NBL Cup game remains their lowest score of the year.

Illawarra played in Perth on Friday night and lost by 14-points (69-83) but led by 1-point at half time in a game that featured 17 lead changes.

Last game United scored 98 against the Bullets which was their highest score in their past 18 games and second highest score of the season behind the 109 they put on Brisbane back in round four.

When Melbourne shoot 41% from the field or lower they are 1 win and 4 losses. When they go above that mark they are 17 wins and 1 loss.

Over Deng Adel’s last six games, the marquee man for the Hawks has scored 2, 4, 2, 3, 2 & 4 shooting at 7-from-27 shot attempts. That's a clip of 26% and includes 0-from-12 threes. Overall, Adel has made just one of his last 19 three-point attempts over his past ten games.

The Hawks shot 4-from-22 threes on Friday night (18%) which continued a theme. Over the last six games, Illawarra have been the worst three-point shooting team at 26% and also the lowest ranked free-throw shooters at 67%.

THE MATCH UP

Tyler Harvey v Mitch McCarron

Both Harvey and McCarron could well be considered the barometers for their respective lineups. In three contests with United this season, Harvey has averaged 18.6-points, seven rebounds and three dimes. By comparison - McCarron has put up a tick over 13-points, six boards and five assists. 

It's no secret that if you can shut down Harvey you go a long way to stopping the Hawks. He's so important to Illawarra's offensive systems and structure that United coach Dean Vickerman has installed McCarron as his chief stopped when it comes to the LA-native. In his last game at John Cain Arena McCarron got the better of Harvey as the guard shot 4-from-17 FG (1/8 threes) for 11-points.

Harvey fouled out in Perth for the first time this season with 14-points which stretches his scoring average to 22.2 from his last four games since missing a game with back spasms - and with McCarron sure to be wearing him like a glove today, he may look to get his teammates more involved to lighten the load.

THE SPOTLIGHT

Justinian Jessup - he may have had a quiet couple of NBL games but one gets the feeling it's all part of the peaks and troughs of this burdgeoning young stars career.

Jessup is busy navigating his first full professional season of basketball - and in his last two contests he has only put up a combined 15-points, five rebounds and three assists. If you compare that to his season averages - 14-points, four rebounds and two assists - he would be the first to admit he has been a bit below par.

But one of the beauties of Jessup is he has always had a team first mentality with the Hawks. Speaking to media after the side's win over the Taipans last week he said openly he will have some bad games, but as long as the team is successful, "it's all good". It's a quality that will surely impress the Golden State Warriors (the NBA team that drafted him) given the selfless nature of stars liek Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.

The NBL can be a tough beast to navigate with more aggressive defences and more casual officiating, so working his way through this rough patch can only help Jessup down the track.