Hawkeye - Illawarra Hawks v Perth Wildcats R8 Preview

THE MUST KNOWS 

When: 4:30pm, Sunday 7 March

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: SBS Viceland, SBS On Demand and Twitch

Last Time They Met: Perth 99 (Cotton 23, White 17, Norton 14) defeated Illawarra 77 (Blanchfield 26, Dech 15, Grida 11), Round 15, January 10, 2020

THE PRELUDE

It's the first matchup this year between the Hawks and Wildcats – last year’s wooden spooners v last year’s champions - and if the previous season is anything to go by (the Wildcats won the series 3-0 by a total of 54 points) it could be a tough day for the Hawkies.

There's two separate strands of thought when it comes to the significance of this game - and with the NBL ladder becoming more logjammed by the day - every game adds another layer of significance.

Firstly, the overall title race. The Hawks and the Wildcats currently sit third and second respectively, but four other side's are currently parked right behind them with a similar sort of record. A win here could get one of these side's into a clear second spot behind runaway leaders Melbourne United.

Secondly, the NBL Cup is still at the forefront of both side's thinking. A loss probably rules the Hawks out of contention for the inaugural NBL Cup title, while the Wildcats are sitting atop the standings and would need to win this game if they hope to take home the silverware.

Wildcats stars Mitch Norton and Bryce Cotton have both been under an injury cloud but are expected to play - while the Hawks enter the game with a clean bill of health.

THE FUN FACTS

Perth is the only team Illawarra is yet to play this season. 

The Hawks have played Wildcats more than any other opponent in their history with 126 matches for 38 wins and 88 losses.

This is the first ever game in NBL history where two coaches with at least five Championships have gone head to head. Brian Goorjian won six titles before he left for China and Trevor Gleeson has won five himself while he was away.

The last time these men coached against each other in the NBL was the February 2009 when Gleeson was in the Semi Finals for the first time in his career, but lost the deciding game three at John Cain Arena to Goorjian’s South Dragons who went on to win the Championship.

This will be Todd Blanchfield’s first game against the team he played with for the past two seasons. Last year Blanchfield played in five wins with the Hawks but has already passed that this year with six while averaging a career best 14.8ppg.

Nothing between these teams in scoring this year with Perth at 90.1 and Illawarra on 89.9

The Hawks now average the most three-point makes at 11.1 per game. They are however seventh in attempts which means they are the most accurate at 40.4%. No team has shot above 40% from the arc over the course of a season in the last decade.

Justinian Jessup has cooled off the last two games. After averaging 54% from long range in his first 10 games, Jessup has shot a combined 2-from-9 in his last two and averaged 9.5ppg.

THE MATCH UP

Justin Simon v Bryce Cotton

Here we go. It's the matchup NBL fans all over the country have been waiting for. The so-called 'Cotton Stopper' up against arguably the greatest import the NBL has ever seen. 

When Justin Simon was signed by the Hawks, many around the league believed the lengthy swing man would be coach Goorjian's not-so secret defensive weapon against the competition's premier offensive threats.

Simon started the season with aplomb, shutting down opposing playmakers at will as the Hawks started the season 4-0. He may have had some growing pains since, but his trademark disruption was back in a big way in the side's last start win over Adelaide and he now turns his attention to the Wildcats main man.

Cotton is flying high in #NBL21 - with the diminutive guard leading all scorers with a tick over 25 points a game. He's also handed out the third most assists across the league and has pinched the ball more than all but two players. One of them being Simon. 

Cotton has averaged 23.2 in his career against the Hawks - and he is the leading the scoring at the NBL Cup at 27.8 per game.

Simon returned to the starting lineup last time out and if the starting sides remain the same tomorrow - the stage should be set for one of the more memorable duels in recent NBL history between two players at the absolute peak of their powers. 

THE SPOTLIGHT

AJ Ogilvy - the Hawks skipper has turned plenty of heads so far this season in a starting role for the league's most improved side. Ogilvy's numbers may not blow you off your chair (4.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and one assist per game), but his influence often goes far beyond the box score.

He faces an intriguing matchup tonight with the in-form John Mooney - with the battle of the bigs certain to play a decisive factor in who wins this game. Mooney is averaging a double double (18 points and 11.6 rebounds) for the Wildcats and has been a big reason for their success at the NBL Cup. Ogilvy has been the Hawks most reliable shot blocker (1.25 swats a game) this season and will have his work cut out for him monitoring Mooney while also keeping one eye out for the ever-elusive Cotton as well.

Deflections, active hands, boxing out, setting screens - these actions might not show up in the paper the day after a game, but they are all part of the Ogilvy playbook on a nightly basis. His minutes may fluctuate from night to night but his influence remains a constant.

Interestingly, Ogilvy has won just one of his last 14 games played against the Wildcats.